Wha? Russell?
Posted by disappointmentzone on 19 March 2007
From Peter King’s MMQB column today:
I think a week from today, there’s a very good chance one of the big stories in the NFL will be rampant speculation (now there’s a change from everything in the world of pro football) that Cleveland wants to trade up from No. 3 to No. 1 in the first round to try to draft Russell. GM Phil Savage has known Russell since his freshman year in high school in Mobile, Ala., and loves the kid.
I really don’t know what to make of this except to say that trading up is the exact opposite approach I think the team should take on draft day. Maybe Russell really is the next can’t-miss quarterback (Tim and Ryan say Hi), but does anyone else think it’s mildly suspicious that very few people, at the start of the last college football season, were talking up Russell? I’m not going to say that he came out of nowhere. He was an honorable mention All-SEC quarterback his sophomore year before being selected to the first team last season. People knew he could play. But no one was projecting him as the top overall quarterback in college football, the guy who would certainly usurp Brady Quinn at the top of the draft boards. In the age of the 24-hour news cycle, does anyone else find this odd? Quinn has been touted as a top draft pick for about two years now. Same with Joe Thomas (injury aside). Same with Adrian Peterson. Same with Calvin Johnson. Then there is Russell, who is parlaying an incredible performance in the Sugar Bowl into the first selection of the 2007 NFL Draft.
Look, I’m not trying to suggest that Russell won’t be an excellent quarterback in the NFL. Reports from his workout at LSU have it that right now he has the strongest arm of any quarterback in the universe (although similar reports surfaced a few years ago when Kyle Boller threw a pass from the 50 yard line threw the uprights while being on his knees — clearly arm strength does not a quarterback make) and that he’s just mobile enough to avoid many of the sacks that will come playing behind the Browns’ offensive line. Mel Kiper still thinks that Russell is a couple years away from being a solid contributor to any NFL team. That’s just the learning curve playing quarterback at this level demands. The Browns are not looking to win a Super Bowl anytime soon, but I’m pretty sure that Browns fans are tired of project quarterbacks. If winning tomorrow is important, then the Browns should draft Thomas or trade down for multiple picks. Trading up for a project QB is antithetical to this aim.
One final note: Suppose the Browns to trade up and draft Russell. Who is starting the first game this season? Or, to put it another way, is Charlie Frye going to be Russell’s mentor? Drafting Russell means almost certainly having to pick up a veteran QB before training camp.
The Disappointment Zone 
Josh said
I read on Pro Football Talk that the Browns aren’t hopeful that Winslow will play this year, if ever again. What a blow that would be. My best guess at this early stage is the Raiders draft Johnson and the Lions trade down with Texas or Minnesota, leaving Cleveland Joe Thomas or Adrian Peterson.
Haze said
Either learn to laugh at the Browns or you’ll severely damage your own property.
disappointmentzone said
Good advice, Haze.
Josh: I saw the same news. Can’t say that I’m surprised. Amare is the only player I can think of off the top of my head who’s come back successfully from microfracture surgery, and it took him more than a year to do so. I put the chances of Winslow playing this season at 2%. I put his chances of playing in future seasons at 50%, at least at a pre-surgery level. Although with Winslow’s past, what does that even mean? The first few games of his rookie season? With that in mind targeting the O-Line is even more critical since Winslow was a good blocker who could be kept in to help the tackles.
Erik said
Take anything you read in print about the NFL draft with a large grain of salt. This time of year, rumors are flying fast and furious as hundreds of NFL beat writers clamor for any shred of news they can break.
That fact is magnified many times when your team holds a high pick. Everyone wants to know where Russell, Quinn and Peterson are going, so the Browns are going to be linked to all of them through every scenario imaginable. Tomorrow, the Browns are going to be dead-set on Peterson because Romeo Crennel dated Peterson’s third-grade math teacher’s roommate’s cousin back in the ’60s.
If a trade does happen, it probably won’t be until the Browns have 39 seconds left on the clock during their first-round pick. Usually, trades happen because one team gets desperate, cracks and parts with way too much (referance the Browns in ’04, when they traded up one pick to get Winslow.)
Usually, the team that cracks is the team that trades up. The Browns might trade up, but I’d say odds are very much against it. If they move anywhere, it’s going to be down, and even then, I’d say odds are slim.
Few things, outside of cow pastures, are loaded with more bull shit than NFL draft trade rumors.
Hornless Rhino said
I think Erik is the voice of reason on this rumor, and I take some comfort in the fact that Peter King is usually wrong. On the other hand, I also remember that Phil Savage masterminded the Kyle Boller pick and convinced the Ravens to trade a 1st and a 2nd round pick to Belichick in order to draft Boller.
If you think Savage has learned from the Boller pick, you better check out his bio on the Browns website. He advertises Boller as one of his “First Round Draft Successes.” Yikes.
Top Dawg said
1st, the Winslow rumor is false.
2nd, I think this is more of the infamous smoke screen to hide our true intentions in this year’s draft. Whether Charlie is the guy or not, we are not going to trade up and give away most of our draft to pick up a QB. That would be utterly ludicrous, and Phil’s a smarter man than that…I hope.
On the veteran QB issue, I think it would be safe to assume we’re going to grab one anyway. Not sure why we haven’t heard much about it, as it’s a pretty big need, but I’m pretty certain we’ll bring someone in.
disappointmentzone said
I realize that trade rumors of all sorts usually turn out to be unfounded. My point with the post was not to legitimize the rumor so much as to make two points:
1) The trading up to draft a QB is the exact opposite of what I think the Browns should do.
2) That right now it’s hard to determine if Russell is a flash in the pan or a out and out stud.
The reasons trades happen in the last 30 seconds is not because one team cracks, although this does play a role, but because when you are trying to maximize your options you ought to wait until the last possible second. Teams wait because waiting is smart, and it is smart only in part because doing so can for trade partners into compromising positions.
Test said
Hello
Bye