The Disappointment Zone

Musings from a Cleveland sports fan

Terrelle Pryor and Statistical Modeling

Posted by disappointmentzone on 11 February 2008

According to a statistical model created by economists at Mercer University’s Stetson School of Business and Economics highly touted high school quarterback Terrelle Pryor is most likely to attend Penn State. This after Pryor appeared ready to commit to Ohio State in the days leading up to National Signing Day.

What can a statistical model tell us about the likelihood of a high school player attending a particular university? That’s a good question. Turns out the biggest factors affecting a player’s decision are:

1) Whether the player visited the school

2) The distance from the player’s hometown

3) The size of the school’s football stadium

With Penn State now officially on Pryor’s short list it’s easy to see why PSU would be the likely choice according to the statistical model. Michigan still trails Ohio State (not surprisingly).

This year the model had an accuracy rate of 73%. Whatever your thoughts are about using economics to predict where high school football players attend college, you can’t argue with 73% accuracy. That seems quite high.

OSU fans probably should be rooting for a slightly lower accuracy rate in the coming weeks.

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4 Responses to “Terrelle Pryor and Statistical Modeling”

  1. John MacLean said

    What happened to the 27%?

  2. RockKing said

    I feel pretty confident TP will still fall in the 27 percentile. All indications are that OSU is his favorite and I fail to see how visiting a place he’s already seen will change that. I hope I’m right, anyway.

  3. I agree. I think he ends up at OSU.

  4. John said

    I also agree and think he will end up playing for the Buckeyes!!

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