The Disappointment Zone

Musings from a Cleveland sports fan

Browns Playoff Odds Report: 93%

Posted by disappointmentzone on 19 December 2007

Don’t look now but the Browns are on the brink of the verge of the other metaphor of making the playoffs. With Sunday’s victory over the Bills the Browns are now at 93% to play a meaningful football game in January, which is the highest mark this season. If the Browns beat the Bengals next Sunday they’ll clinch of playoff berth and next week’s Playoff Odds Report will be unnecessary (then again, this blog is unnecessary and that doesn’t stop me from writing it, so I’d anticipate another Playoff Odds Report next week even if the Browns win). If the Browns lose to the Bengals then things get a little trickier.

Let’s assume the Browns lose next week.

If the Browns lose to the Bengals then Tennessee controls its playoff destiny. If the Titans win out they’ll make the playoffs, possibly at the expense of the Browns. Tennessee would have to beat the Jets at home and Indianapolis on the road. Tennessee winning both of those games seems pretty unlikely. If they drop one of those games then the ball swings back into the Browns’ court. With a Tennessee loss the Browns-San Francisco game will decide the Browns’ fate. Win, they’re in. Lose, they’re out.

That’s the wild card berth.

But the Browns still have a shot at the division!

In fact, Football Outsiders gives them a 39.5% chance of stealing the division crown from Pittsburgh, also a season high. As Pittsburgh owns the tie breaker the Browns need the Steelers to lose at least once more in order to have a shot at the division (and the Browns need to win at least one more as well). Pittsburgh plays this Thursday at St. Louis. The Rams stink but on a short week and with a healthy Stephen Jackson they certainly have a puncher’s chance to upset Pittsburgh. The following week the Steelers play on the road against Baltimore. Baltimore just lost to freaking Miami so who knows what to make of them (other than that they suck), but it’s a division game and maybe Troy Smith will use some of the BCS OSU magic to rain all over the ugly town of Pittsburgh. That’s assuming he plays. With Kyle Boller at the helm…

Anyway, the important point is that the Browns have many ways to get into the playoffs. Time to get excited.

7 Responses to “Browns Playoff Odds Report: 93%”

  1. it’s been a season of dreams, baby, woooooooooooooooooooo!

  2. Erik said

    Which is more advantageous from a postseason match-up standpoint: winning the division or going into the playoffs as a wild card?

    It now appears that the Chargers will clinch the third seed and the Jaguars all but have the fifth seed wrapped up thanks to the head-to-head tiebreak with the Steelers and superior record. It appears the winner of the AFC North will now play Jacksonville as the fourth seed. Home or road, the Jags are a tough draw. They have the passing to outscore teams in warm weather and the running attack to slug it out in a snow game. There isn’t much of a question that they are currently the best team in the AFC outside of the Patriots and Colts.

    The sixth seed appears headed to San Diego, a team that has been pretty darn inconsistent all year. But even if Bad Philip Rivers shows up and throws four picks, there is still a high probability that LT is going to chew up the Browns’ front seven en route to 100-150 yards rushing.

    I’d probably rather face San Diego at this point just because their passing attack scares me less. But how do you turn your nose up at a possible division title and the chance to host a playoff game, even if it’s against the red-hot Jaguars?

  3. @ Erik

    The home game. No doubt. I’m rooting for STL and BAL to knock off the Steelers and for the Browns to win out.

  4. Yes Erik, going into the playoffs is one thing. Having Jacksonville come into Cleveland for a HOME playoff game, now THAT is something.

  5. josh said

    with Parker out, Pittsburgh becomes an easier out. If we have to play them, we definitely have a good shot.

  6. Tim said

    Today is a must win for us. Bengals are only favored by 3 which is good.

    Lets go Browns.

    Brady Quinn Fan since ND!!


  7. Then Derek Anderson came along…. ugh.

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