Please, no Mike Bibby
Posted by disappointmentzone on 14 July 2007
Consider the post from July 2 a false start. I jumped the gun. Turns out posting to this blog without internet access is much harder than I originally anticipated. But with internet access restored the Disappointment Zone returns for the second time and this time it ain’t going anywhere.
So I hear that the Cavs are in trade talks with the Kings over Mike Bibby. The PD reported this morning that the talks were off, but ABJ writer Brian Windhorst believes that Bibby will eventually end up coming to Cleveland. The deal, whenever it happens, if it happens, will most likely involve Drew Gooden.
My take: Gooden is too valuable to the Cavs to trade for a declining PG like Bibby. First, Gooden’s contract is extremely attractive. He is owed $6.4M this season and $7.1M next season. For a guy who averaged 11/8.5 that’s extremely cheap in today’s market. Just ask the Orlando Magic, who gave a max contract to Rashard Lewis, a player who is almost identical to Gooden with respect to Wins Produced. By virtue of his contract and productivity, Gooden is by far the Cavs’ most tradeable asset (other than LBJ, of course). So why waste Gooden on Bibby?
Second, Bibby is a stop-gap, not a long term solution. What’s more, he’s an overpriced, under-performing stop-gap. He’s been on a fairly steady decline over the last few years and in 2006-07 he posted the worst shooting year of his career — nearly .030 points off of his previous worst, which was the season before. He’ll be 29 next year and 30 if he stays for the remainder of his contract. Of course, he can opt out after next season, so he could be a one year rental. $13.5M sure is a lot to spend on a guy who might leave within the year, and $28M is too much to spend over the two years he has left on his contract.
Finally, trading Gooden means that there is a glaring whole at PF. Varejao is the likely candidate to fill that spot should Gooden be traded, but there is no guarantee that Varejao will be with the Cavs next season. If Ferry trades Gooden before signing Varejao that’ll be the final straw in his tenure as the GM. That would be the boneheaded move to end them all. That said, should Varejao take a qualifying offer for next season — a definite possibility since it would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent in 2008-09 — the Cavs could potentially be without a PF and a PG at the start of the 08-09 season.
You must ask yourself, is Mike Bibby worth:
* At least $13.5M with a possibility of being worth $28M for just two seasons.
* Going deep into the luxury tax?
* Potentially leaving the Cavs without a PG and a PF entering into the final years before LBJ can opt out of his contract to leave Cleveland?
Personally I would rather the Cavs pays Bibby $13.5M not to play for the team, much in the same way that the US has paid countries not to develop nuclear weapons. Trading for Bibby would be a horrible mistake.
Feels good to be back.