The Disappointment Zone

Musings from a Cleveland sports fan

Please, no Mike Bibby

Posted by disappointmentzone on 14 July 2007

Consider the post from July 2 a false start. I jumped the gun. Turns out posting to this blog without internet access is much harder than I originally anticipated. But with internet access restored the Disappointment Zone returns for the second time and this time it ain’t going anywhere.

So I hear that the Cavs are in trade talks with the Kings over Mike Bibby. The PD reported this morning that the talks were off, but ABJ writer Brian Windhorst believes that Bibby will eventually end up coming to Cleveland. The deal, whenever it happens, if it happens, will most likely involve Drew Gooden.

My take: Gooden is too valuable to the Cavs to trade for a declining PG like Bibby. First, Gooden’s contract is extremely attractive. He is owed $6.4M this season and $7.1M next season. For a guy who averaged 11/8.5 that’s extremely cheap in today’s market. Just ask the Orlando Magic, who gave a max contract to Rashard Lewis, a player who is almost identical to Gooden with respect to Wins Produced. By virtue of his contract and productivity, Gooden is by far the Cavs’ most tradeable asset (other than LBJ, of course). So why waste Gooden on Bibby?

Second, Bibby is a stop-gap, not a long term solution. What’s more, he’s an overpriced, under-performing stop-gap. He’s been on a fairly steady decline over the last few years and in 2006-07 he posted the worst shooting year of his career — nearly .030 points off of his previous worst, which was the season before. He’ll be 29 next year and 30 if he stays for the remainder of his contract. Of course, he can opt out after next season, so he could be a one year rental. $13.5M sure is a lot to spend on a guy who might leave within the year, and $28M is too much to spend over the two years he has left on his contract.

Finally, trading Gooden means that there is a glaring whole at PF. Varejao is the likely candidate to fill that spot should Gooden be traded, but there is no guarantee that Varejao will be with the Cavs next season. If Ferry trades Gooden before signing Varejao that’ll be the final straw in his tenure as the GM. That would be the boneheaded move to end them all. That said, should Varejao take a qualifying offer for next season — a definite possibility since it would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent in 2008-09 — the Cavs could potentially be without a PF and a PG at the start of the 08-09 season.

You must ask yourself, is Mike Bibby worth:

* At least $13.5M with a possibility of being worth $28M for just two seasons.
* Going deep into the luxury tax?
* Potentially leaving the Cavs without a PG and a PF entering into the final years before LBJ can opt out of his contract to leave Cleveland?

Personally I would rather the Cavs pays Bibby $13.5M not to play for the team, much in the same way that the US has paid countries not to develop nuclear weapons. Trading for Bibby would be a horrible mistake.

Feels good to be back.

2 Responses to “Please, no Mike Bibby”

  1. josh said

    I agree. Stay away from Bibby. I think the Cavs need to start looking at more modest moves. Maybe a 2nd round pick for Anthony Johnson, a decent 15 minute a game PG in Atlanta now. Cj Miles is a restricted SG from Utah who I think has the potential to out-perform his likely contract. And I’ve always been intrigued by Pietrus although I am not sure Cleveland has the pieces for a Sign and Trade.

    I’ve heard the talk about Posey but I’m not sure that move makes the team better, esp because he will command 5 mill a year. He plays good D and can shoot the 3 but has very few basketball skills and doesn’t move well without the ball.

    What’s Ridnours deal in Seattle. He might not be bad for 25 minute a night. A more traditional PG then what Daniel Gibson brings for when Gibson is on the bench. I think Duhon is also worth a shot but I’m not sure why Chicago would want to help Cleveland.

    I’d stay away from Steve Francis. I think he is a SG and you already pay Hughes to do the same things (shoot poorly, be to small to defend other teams SGs, not look to pass first) Francis might have a comeback but I dont think Cleveland fits

  2. Ridnour is signed through 2010 for something like $18M, which is too much for the Cavs to take on given the type of player he is.

    I’m high on Duhon but there is no way the Bulls would let him go to Cleveland.

    A modest move worth considering is hiring a coach that’s an offensive mastermind. While there are certainly problems with the players on roster, I think some of the issues the team has can be addressed through coaching instead of roster changes. Plus coaches’ salaries don’t count against the luxury tax. Ferry and Gilbert need to strong arm Brown into bring in a hired gun, at least for a season.

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