Danny Ferry II
Posted by disappointmentzone on 24 January 2007
A number of the people who have voiced their criticisms about my previous post on Danny Ferry (both in the messages below and on other sites). While most people seem to agree that Marshall was given too many years and Jones was given too much money, a lot of people seem pretty convinced that the Hughes and Ilgauskas signings were justified, or at least will be soon.
Concerning Hughes, the chorus has been the same chorus Cleveland fans have been spouting for years when it comes to such players (overpaid, underperforming). Signing Hughes was the only logical move! He’s a good player going through a rough patch! Once the team gets a PG or once he gets healthy he’ll turn into a player worth his contract! You’ve heard it before. Hughes is not good — he’s has had only one season of being above average. But I’ve said this about 39 times already.
Concerning Ilguaskas, the consensus seems to be that his contract was completely “in line” with…well, I’m not sure what his contract is actually in line with, but that’s one phrase that was used.
I assume that what was meant was that Z’s contract was in line with his productivity. After all, basketball players are paid to produce. With that in mind, I’ve begun a little analysis in an effort to compare on-court productivity to salary. I’ll write up my findings soon, but for the moment I wanted to point out how much Ferry’s signings have been worth. As the analysis becomes more fine these numbers will change slightly, but enough has already been done that there should be no drastic changes in what you are about to read.
For each player I’ve included their actual salary and the number of wins one can expect them to produce this season given how well they’ve played thus far. Then there is a figure for what their salary should be which I derived from regressing salary and the expected Wins Produced of about 225 NBA players. The final number is the difference between what they are being paid and what they ought to be paid given their performance. It’s all fairly simple.
Without further delay, then…
Expected WP: 7.5
Salary Should Be: $6,630,937
Difference: $2,811,760 OVERPAID
Expected WP: 2.4
Salary Should Be: $3,892,123
Difference: $1,740,914 OVERPAID
Expected WP: 1.1
Salary Should Be: $3,209,416
Difference: $675,262 OVERPAID
Expected WP: 1.8
Salary Should Be: $3,543,929
Difference: $9,819,083 OVERPAID
Notice a trend?
When you look at the entire roster, Dan Gilbert is currently paying the Cavs about half a million dollars more than they are worth. LeBron James is being underpaid by about $6.3mil, followed by Anderson Varejao, who’s being underpaid by about $4.7mil. Daniel Gibson is next: he’s being underpaid by about $2.2mil. Once James’s contract extension kicks in Gilbert will be paying the team a lot more than they will be worth given the on-court productivity (assuming no major roster changes occur). The saving grace is that LBJ is still on his rookie contract.
After scanning about half of the team in the Association, the Cavs are doing about average in this regard (I’m just eyeballing it). The Raptors as a team are being paid about $17.5mil below what they should be, but that’s a bit extreme. Most teams fall in the +$3mil to – $3mil range.