The Disappointment Zone

Musings from a Cleveland sports fan

Cavaliers: 39% mark: analysis

Posted by disappointmentzone on 6 January 2007

The Cavs are 20-12 through the first 32 games of the season. We are inching up on the 40% mark and when the Cavs return home after the long west coast road trip the season to play the Orlando Magic that will be the 41st game of the season, or the 50% mark. With the last home game before that brutal run tonight against the Nets (a team that had to play very hard last night to beat the Bulls; a team that’ll have to travel to play the Cavs; a team I like our chances of beating) I figured this was as good of time as any to provide an update on how the team is doing statistically. At this point I’m not going to go into any detailed discussion of what the team is doing well (defense) or not doing well (offense). That’ll come later. Right now is only about the numbers.

WS/min = Win Score per minute
WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes
WP = Wins Produced
ProjWP = Projected Wins Produced

If you have any interest in learning more about these statistics (or even if you don’t) then buy The Wages of Wins and check out the book’s blog, updated every day by one of its authors. Both are great reads.


This table is organized by points scored and does not include a column for Wins Produced above average, a statistic I’ve been tracking in the Disappointment Zone boxscore. As a rule guards have lower Win Scores than forwards, who have lower Win Scores than centers. A guard with a Win Score of .133 and a center with a Win Score of .225 are both playing average basketball for their respective positions.

Now the Wins Produced (the more robust of the “Wins” statistics):


These statistics have been adjusted for position, so it’s completely fair to say that Anderson Varejao has out-performed Larry Hughes, for example. LeBron James is the most productive player on the team. Drew Gooden is next. If Drew Gooden keeps putting up 31/16s then by the end of the season he may very well take the title from James, although I wouldn’t bet on this happening. Ira Newble is the worst player, but Pavolvic has been the most costly since he’s played more minutes than any of the scrubs.

So those are the numbers through 32 games. How will the team do over the rest of the season? If you project each player’s numbers out to 82 games, this is what you get:


Keep following the Wages of Wins blog to see where 48 wins would put the Cavs in Eastern Conference playoff seeding — they are doing analyses of all the NBA teams. This much is certain: 48 wins would be enough to finish first in the Atlantic Division.


3 Responses to “Cavaliers: 39% mark: analysis”

  1. Bad Becks said

    If we could somehow put all this statistical analysis together to improve my gambling debts then you will be my hero for life. Go Bucks!

  2. Jon said

    I’ve nearly decided that I probably hate Notre Lame more than mishitgan. ..maybe.

    irish fans against wolverine fans would be a good idea for a game show to see who can whine the most or who can come up with the best excuses. I seriously hate notre lame fans, were they always this bad?

  3. They’ve been this bad for as long as I can remember.

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