The Disappointment Zone

Musings from a Cleveland sports fan

Archive for September 19th, 2006

Don Banks says Carthon talentless hack

Posted by disappointmentzone on 19 September 2006

Well, not exactly. But if you read between the lines

Maurice Carthon‘s performance as Browns offensive coordinator through one season and two games has been, to be kind, underwhelming. Carthon is an example of an NFL coach whose reputation got ahead of his résumé. In some cases, it doesn’t even take having some real success these days to be branded an up-and-coming talent.


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Projection fun

Posted by disappointmentzone on 19 September 2006

OSU quarterback Troy Smith hasn’t thrown an interception since November 11th, 2005, against Northwestern, a span of 124 passes. Since the Northwestern game Smith has completed 102 of 146 pass attempts (70%) for 1411 yards with 11 touchdowns (10 passing, 1 running). For the season he’s 56 of 81 (69%) for 769 yards with 7 touchdowns (all passing).

Not too shabby (and certainly better than Captain America’s line).

In his weekly Heisman Watch, writer Gene Menez taps Smith as the front runner but wonders if Jim Tressel–he of the sweater vests and equally conservative offense–will allow Smith the accumulate the type of statistics voters expect from a Heisman quarterback.

This is a valid concern, I suppose.

So I while I was browsing this afternoon and stumbled upon Smith’s projected 2006 statistics, I figured they’d be worth bringing up in this context if only to point out not only how impressive Smith has been this season but also how misleading projections can be if based only on three games. Smith’s 2006 projected line:

224 of 324 (69%) for 3076 yards with 28 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (passer rating: 177.4)

If Smith passes for over 3000 yards without throwing an interception I think he’ll have a decent shot at winning the Heisman. Perversely, if OSU loses a few games during the season Smith stands practically no chance of winning the Heisman. The popular understanding of football is all wrong, but that’s another issue.

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