The Disappointment Zone

Musings from a Cleveland sports fan

Ohio State Football Buckeyes predictions

Posted by disappointmentzone on 1 September 2006

Later today or early tomorrow I’m going to post a more in-depth look at this week’s match up between OSU and NI, but if only to embarrass myself a shade more than I already have I’m going to post my predictions for the entire season, bowl game and all, in typical Disappointment Zone fashion, which is to say by providing a weekly emotional barometer of the OSU faithful.

I will absolutely, positively, 100% stand behind these picksuntil one of them proves grossly wrong, which I assume will be sooner rather than later. With that in mind, along with my predictions I’m going to provide a confidence number that will indicate, well, how confident I am in my pick, on a scale of 1-100 (1 being not confident). Because ballsy prognostications are lame and macho.

Week 1: Northern Illinois: Utter Confidence followed by Regal Indifference (97)
Week 2: at Texas: Vengeful Satisfaction (57)
Week 3: Cincinnati: Lighthearted Delight (98)
Week 4: Penn State: Placated Contentment (86)
Week 5: Iowa: Outright Horror (45)
Week 6: Bowling Green: Playful Giddiness (98)
Week 7: at Michigan State: Cocksure (75)
Week 8: Indiana: Bored (97)
Week 9: Minnesota: Spirited (88)
Week 10: at Illinois: Determined Anticipation (97)
Week 11: at Northwestern: Joy underscored with Sympathy (94)
Week 12: Michigan: Beer-soaked Elation (79)
Week 1x: National Title Game: Opponent: Doesn’t Matter: Outright Bliss (35)

In other words: 12-1, National Champions.

Five most-worrisome games: at Iowa, at Texas, Michigan, at Michigan State, Penn State

Five most-likely National Title Game opponents: Auburn, Notre Dame, West Virginia, LSU, USC

Five most overrated teams: Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Cal, Notre Dame

Aside: How can I have Notre Dame as both the most overrated team and the second most-likely team to play in the National Title Game? Allow me to answer that question in three parts.

First, I have Notre Dame as the most overrated team because Notre Dame has not earned the right to be ranked in the top three in every damn preseason poll I’ve seen. Right now Notre Dame should be a top-10 team given the slew of returning starters of offense and defense, Brady Quinn, and Charlie Weiss. Notre Dame deserves a high ranking, but not a top three ranking. Wake me when Notre Dame beats a top-25 team (didn’t happen last season; should happen week two this season). Until then, no.

Second, I think Notre Dame will develop into a damn good team this season. On top of that, they have a favorable schedule. Penn State and Michigan at home will be games I expect Notre Dame to win and those wins will provide them with the necessary points in the BCS needed to be a top-ranked team. After the Michigan game (week three) Notre Dame won’t play a challenging game until the final week of the season, against USC. This is not to say that Notre Dame won’t lose a game (if ND makes it past both Michigan and USC without a loss I’ll be shocked), but they have a schedule that should allow them to make it through the season with only one loss.

Third, the BCS rankings are grossly influenced by pre-season polls. Had Notre Dame started this season ranked ninth instead of second, their chances of playing in the National Title Game would be significantly reduced. As long as preseason polls exert an unwarranted influence over the BCS poll teams that start the season ranked high are given an illegitimate advantage over lower-ranked teams (see: Auburn, 2004). Given this, it is entirely reasonable to think that a) Notre Dame is ranked higher right now than they should be and b) that Notre Dame will play in the National Title Game. In fact, these two statements are entirely related. Moving on…

Best Game of the Year: Ohio State vs. Michigan, November 18th (of course)

Runners Up: FSU vs Miami, September 4th (always fun to root for a terrible accident), West Virginia vs. Lousiville, November 2nd (five years ago no one would have thought this game could have national title implications), Ohio State vs. Iowa, Septmber 30th (this game worries me…a lot), Notre Dame vs USC, November 25th, (see: FSU vs. Miami), Auburn vs. LSU, September 16th (I’d bet on Auburn), Ohio State vs. Northern Illinois (why not?).

Over/Under: Days after November 18th Lloyd Carr is fired: 50

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4 Responses to “Ohio State Football Buckeyes predictions”

  1. FootballFanatic said

    How can you say Notre Dame is Overrated? The only reason they didn’t play for the national championship in 2005 was because of their defense. They lost to the 2 time defending champs and the 2005 runner up (USC) by a last second touchdown that put USC up by 3. This year it is obvious that the defense has improved. Along with an Offense that returns ready to pass and run all day long;
    They are rated probably right where they need to be. Considering their preseason ranking and their STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE.. marked 2nd toughest only behind Washington, if Notre Dame can win out… THEY DESERVE the shot. But your right… Ohio State verses the Irish in a National Championship Game.

  2. Name me the last time ND beat a top 10 team? As far as I can tell, it hasn’t happened in a few years. It didn’t happen last season. College teams change from year to year so it’s not fair to compare what ND did in 2003 to what they’ll do in 2006, but last season ND didn’t prove itself to be a #2 preseason team (and some had them as #1) for 2006. This is why I said they were overrated.

    You say the only reason ND didn’t play for the national championship last season was defense. I’m not sure what to make of this. The only reason South Florida didn’t play for the national championship was because of their defense and offense. Defense is half the game. Being good in one area and bad in another–and ND was terrible on defense in 2005–does not make a champsionship team, or even a highly-ranked team. Until ND proves itself capable of playing defense–something they cannot do in the preseason–ND didn’t deserve to be ranked so high.

    I don’t know where you get that ND’s 2006 schedule is the second hardest in the country. There are only two teams ND plays this season that will definitely finish in the top 25–USC and Michigan. Who else do they play that’s any good? Navy? Air Force? Army? NC? You must be joking. The litany of mediocre teams ND plays between Michigan and USC is incredible.

    That said, if ND wins out they deserve a shot at the national championship. I’d say the same thing about any undefeated team. I hope both OSU and ND win out because a rematch would be great.

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  4. kyl said

    Notre Dame sucks. Brady Quinn is a school boy biatch! Troy Smith is easily the best QB in the nation. Michigan will lose because they suck and their coach sucks too!

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