The Disappointment Zone

Musings from a Cleveland sports fan

Wednesday’s comeback, in graph form

Posted by disappointmentzone on 25 August 2006

This is what a 9-run comeback looks like in graph form. The early dip was Hafner’s homer in the first. The other big moments are highlighted with red dots and text. When Shin-Soo Choo hit his game-tying triple in the top of the ninth the probability of the Royals winning, according to the graph, was above 50%. Statistically this was probably true. After all, the Royals only needed to score one run in the bottom of the ninth to win the game. But still, there was absolutely no way the Royals were winning that game after the Indians made such a huge comeback. Whatever morale remained with the Royals after they blew a nine-run lead by allowing the go-ahead run to come to the plate in the sixth inning quickly left the building, along with the hapless Royals faithful, after Choo rocketed a pitch down the right field line. The only way the Royals were going to win that game would have been if the Indians absolutely botched it.

Come to think of it, that 50% sounds about right.


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