The Disappointment Zone

Musings from a Cleveland sports fan

Keeping pace

Posted by disappointmentzone on 2 July 2006

After the Indians beat the Cardinals last week to improve to 34-41 I wrote:

If the Indians can go just 60-27 over the next 87 games the Wild Card might be theirs. That means the Indians can’t lose more than nine games per month on average, which seems…unlikely, but possible. I mean, look at the Twins. If the Twins can win, so can the Indians. Sure, 60 wins against teams with a combined (and weighted) .52 winning percentage may seem like a stretch, but what sort of Cleveland fan would I be if I were not hopeful?

Well, today’s win against the Reds moves the Indians win-loss record to 3-2 since my forecast, which is slightly below where the Indians need to be after five games if they are to stay on pace, but had the Indians not blown two of those games they would be far ahead of the necessary 60-27 pace. Had they not blown one of those games they’d be ahead of pace. Man, this is frustrating. Anyway, this week the Indians can make power moves in their uphill climb into Wild Card contention by taking at least two games against the visiting New York Yankees. One baseball site has the chances of the Indians making the playoffs this season at below .9%. I think that’s way too low. The chances are more like 2.3%. And as long as that chance doesn’t drop to 0%, I’ll be calculating the ways the Indians can make it to the promise land.

The embarassing news is that the Indians are the only AL team this season to have a losing record in interleague games. Kansas City is still in the AL, in case you were wondering.


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