Don’t look now but the Browns are on the brink of the verge of the other metaphor of making the playoffs. With Sunday’s victory over the Bills the Browns are now at 93% to play a meaningful football game in January, which is the highest mark this season. If the Browns beat the Bengals next Sunday they’ll clinch of playoff berth and next week’s Playoff Odds Report will be unnecessary (then again, this blog is unnecessary and that doesn’t stop me from writing it, so I’d anticipate another Playoff Odds Report next week even if the Browns win). If the Browns lose to the Bengals then things get a little trickier.
Let’s assume the Browns lose next week.
If the Browns lose to the Bengals then Tennessee controls its playoff destiny. If the Titans win out they’ll make the playoffs, possibly at the expense of the Browns. Tennessee would have to beat the Jets at home and Indianapolis on the road. Tennessee winning both of those games seems pretty unlikely. If they drop one of those games then the ball swings back into the Browns’ court. With a Tennessee loss the Browns-San Francisco game will decide the Browns’ fate. Win, they’re in. Lose, they’re out.
That’s the wild card berth.
But the Browns still have a shot at the division!
In fact, Football Outsiders gives them a 39.5% chance of stealing the division crown from Pittsburgh, also a season high. As Pittsburgh owns the tie breaker the Browns need the Steelers to lose at least once more in order to have a shot at the division (and the Browns need to win at least one more as well). Pittsburgh plays this Thursday at St. Louis. The Rams stink but on a short week and with a healthy Stephen Jackson they certainly have a puncher’s chance to upset Pittsburgh. The following week the Steelers play on the road against Baltimore. Baltimore just lost to freaking Miami so who knows what to make of them (other than that they suck), but it’s a division game and maybe Troy Smith will use some of the BCS OSU magic to rain all over the ugly town of Pittsburgh. That’s assuming he plays. With Kyle Boller at the helm…
Anyway, the important point is that the Browns have many ways to get into the playoffs. Time to get excited.
