One (Big) Thought on Derek Anderson
Posted by disappointmentzone on 10 December 2007
How does the story go….
You’re a coach deciding between two runners. They both run the 100m equally fast. One has perfect form. The other has terrible form. Who do you chose?
You chose the runner with terrible form. Why? Because when he finally has perfect form he’ll wax the floor with the other runner.
Right now Derek Anderson is the runner with poor form. Despite this, he’s still playing above league average. Attribute some of that to the line. Attribute some of that to the receivers. But attribute most of that to DA.
Few quarterbacks are consistently above average. Anderson is quickly proving himself to be capable of being one of those guys. He might not have the upside of a Tony Romo, but consider:
Tonight the Falcons are playing in the Monday Night Football Game. The Falcons will be starting Chris Redman, their third quarterback of the season. He replaces Joey Harrington, who was replaced by Byron Leftwich earlier in the season before the starting job was defaulted back to him. Last night, during the Sunday Night Football Game, the Ravens played Troy Smith, who replaced Kyle Boller late in the game, who himself replaced Steve McNair earlier in the season. Next week the Ravens are playing the Dolphins, who will start John Beck, who succeeded Cleo Lemon, who succeeded Trent Green. Meanwhile the Browns will be facing the Bills. At the helm will be Trent Edwards, who was tapped to replace JP Losman a few weeks ago.
Quarterback depth in the NFL is not a luxury so much as a necessity. Finding a quarterback who can reverse that equation, making quarterback depth a luxury instead of a necessity, is incredibly valuable. Finding a quarterback who can do that all within his first season as a starting quarterback is even more of a luxury. And finding a quarterback who can do that without killing a team’s salary cap is may have the most value of all.
Derek Anderson is not a NFL MVP candidate. He shouldn’t be. He hasn’t played remotely well enough to put himself in that discussion. But there is a strong argument to be made that his value to the Browns is nearly equal to that of Brady’s value to the Patriots or Romo’s value to the Cowboys.
This is not hyperbole.
Given where the Browns were last December; given where the Browns were last April; given where the Browns were five minutes into the season; given where the Browns suddenly find themselves now, in the thick of a playoff race; given where the Browns will be in the off season, in control of two young, valuable quarterbacks, neither of whom will hamper the team’s ability to sign free agents and both of whom will gain an additional 12 months to develop at practically no cost to the organization; and given where the Browns could be next season — this all falls squarely on the shoulders of Derek Anderson.
Anderson is not the best player on the Browns. He’s not the best player on the Browns’ offense. But he is the cheap quarterback with bad form who’s still out-pacing most of the league and for that reason Browns fans have big cause for celebration.
irreverend fox said
the only thing I disagree with is comparing his upside with Romo’s…I don’t see much distinctino at all…we are certainly in a lovely position…
disappointmentzone said
Next year will go a long way determining just how big DA’s upside is. Like Romo last season Anderson got off to a hot start but has cooled down in the second half. Defenses seem to be getting a better read on him, which should be expected. How he comes back next season will be huge. I think next year we’ll finally get a picture of about where in the quarterback hierarchy DA belongs.
Erik said
It’s interesting that you compare Anderson’s situation to a coach taking a potential-laden runner with poor form and teaching him to have perfect form. Because that opens up a whole other can of worms about the Browns coaching staff.
Is the Browns coaching staff good enough to ever get Anderson to realize his full potential? Because, get this: I think Anderson is more talented than Tom Brady. You read that right.
Anderson has more physical gifts than Brady. He’s bigger, stronger and has a cannon for an arm. But Brady is the better QB by leaps and bounds because he is so well-coached and plays in a system that fits his strengths like a puzzle piece. Even though Bill Belichick is an Evil Genius whom we all loathe in Cleveland, you can attribute about 99 percent of Tom Brady’s career to his coaching.
Now, contrast that with Romeo Crennel, who doesn’t even seem to know what’s going on with his own team half the time. He sure isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to game planning and adjustments, if that’s any indication.
So, can we really trust Romeo and his crew to get DA to shed his poor form and reach his full potential? I vote no.
What you see from DA is probably what you’re going to get as long as he’s coached by Romeo.
irreverend fox said
erik,
there is no way we can know any of that for sure…and I’d be amazed is a player on that roster who would publically or privately agree with you.
irreverend fox said
if there is a player…
thenaturalmevs said
I disagree strongly my friend. There is nothing to suggest that this ‘poor form’ you speak of will ever be more than the norm for Anderson. The guy has been this way his entire career (inaccurate, strong armed, and remarkably inconsistent).
What you do is choose the guy who scouts would tell you has a higher ceiling–which is still Quinn. That is; unless you like to gamble. If you stick with Anderson long term or even beyond this season, you’re gambling heavily.
Wouldn’t it be just like the browns to shoot themselves in the foot again and pick one year wonder Anderson? Or even if he’s not a one year wonder, he’s a guy who COULD win a playoff game or two. He’s not ever going to win a Superbowl. Brady Quinn, with a much stronger team around him, definitely could.
disappointmentzone said
The salary structure works out that keeping DA next season is a foregone conclusion. He’ll enter next season as the starting QB and based on that body of evidence Quinn’s future will likely be determined.
The thing is, it’s not that insane to imagine the Browns signing DA to a long term deal while keeping Quinn. Quinn is only guaranteed $9M over 5 years. The bulk of Quinn’s contract is incentive-based, with the biggest money coming via an incentive based on playing time. He’s going to get no playing time this year and will then have only two more seasons to make up for it as the incentive is determined in the first three years of the deal.
irreverend fox said
Quinn “definitely could”…and DA is “not ever” going to win a Superbowl…
wow…you’re good…real good.
Ben said
What if someone (Chicago?) signs Anderson and the Browns don’t match, netting them a first and third round pick? Do you grab the extra picks to fill out the defense and turn the offense (with a solid line, solid receivers and solid running game) over to Quinn?
Also, if the Browns clinch this weekend, do we see Quinn at all during the Niners game on the last Sunday of the season?
(side note: isn’t it nice that the Browns haven’t had to go to Quinn or Dorsey because of injuries? That sure is a nice change…)
RockKing said
I’m of the opinion that if someone signs DA and the Browns end up with a 1st and 3rd round pick, it’s not the end of the world. I agree with this post that DA should be the starter next year and he has definitely given the team the luxury of QB depth. But a 1st and 3rd could provide an awful lot of help to the defense, while still allowing the Browns to move forward with the guy who was picked to be the franchise QB of the future. As far as I see it, the Browns are in a really nice win-win situation.
disappointmentzone said
@ Ben
Yes, that’s what I would do. I think the focus this offseason has to be on the defensive front seven and I would not waste cap space by brining in a QB to start ahead of Quinn.
If Quinn gets in at all I would only expect it to be for a series or two and only in a blowout. I understand the impulse to give him some action, but the Browns just seem too far from having a reliably awesome offensive unit that I think time should be funneled away from working towards being one. I’d spell Lewis to give work to Harrison, though. That seems like a no brainer.
(response to side note: Dear lord yes)
(additional side note: Seeing as how the Browns are not going to be drafting in the top 15, may very well not be drafting in the top 20, and possible not even be drafting in the top 25, the Quinn draft pick last year is looking like a masterstroke.)
Ben said
I dunno, if the Browns clinch come Sunday, I’d definitely give Brady a look in the second half of the Niners game (at least). If someone does offer DA a contract, I’d like to at least see Quinn play in a regular season game before snatching those draft picks.
I guess it all comes down to, how much do they trust their scouting? If they think Quinn can handle the duties, then they’ll let Anderson walk (for compensation of course).
(and let’s not forget, if Quinn had made it into camp on time, he may have very well been the opening day starter).
I’m a big fan of Harrison too, I want to see him get more touches, though I could see them riding Lewis the last couple of weeks in the bad weather.
TheNaturalMevs said
Anderson coming back to the Browns is not a foregone conclusion. I can’t urge that strongly enough. He’s been amazingly crummy since the second half of the game in Pittsburgh. His inconsistency tells me that this QB we are seeing now; is not a QB that could ever take us to the Superbowl. He’s ranked 29th in completion percentage of all starting QB’s in the league. He’s done this with the best pass blocking line in football. He’s also been bailed out by numerous circus catches all season and still been this inaccurate. He throws drive killing interceptions and despite the strong arm.. ya ya… the arguments against him really are insurmountable. There are a number of things about DA’s game that will never allow him to be ‘elite’, and he isn’t now. He’s had a once in a lifetime season, other than that, he’s held back the future QB of the franchise while getting us into a wildcard spot. Furthermore, he’s failed to beat a true quality opponent, and I won’t count the Seahawks because they were not a good team when we beat them in overtime. I still say DA shows his ass when we play in the first round. He is what he is. 6th rounder.
TheNaturalMevs said
And if Anderson draws an offer from a team being a RFA that would net the Browns a 1st and 3rd round pick; HUGE IF; because I don’t think any team will think he’s worth it, I’d bet a paycheck that he’s gone. The Browns won’t match.
I’ll leave you with this quote from Phil Savage after Charlie Frye was traded. Nothing has changed since then except Anderson playing way better than anyone could have hoped and building value.
“Our most important goal right now is to groom Brady Quinn to be the guy of the future,” said Savage during his 15 minute press conference with the Cleveland media members.
ShaneRollins said
I’ve talked with Mevs about this before, and I see his point, I just think I’m on the fence about this.
There are very few first round quarterbacks in the league right now who are playing as well as DA is playing. Peyton, Big Ben and Carson Palmer are the only first round QBs I would say are playing as well as Derrick Anderson right now. So many are busts, and we haven’t seen Quinn play save for the pre-season. So to throw DA away because of the hope of what Quinn will be would be premature. Sadly time is not on our side.
I will say if someone was to give us a one and three, which the Vikings and Panthers and maybe the Falcons are the biggest possibilities to do that, then I’d be for it. Cause we don’t know how good Quinn is, but we do know how bad our defensive line is.
TheNaturalMevs said
Hey Shane,
Falcons said the other day that they won’t give up as high as a #5 overall pick and a 3rd rounder for DA.
Honestly, the onoly teams that are going to maybe do it?
49ers, Panthers, Vikings.
Just remember something all of you who are enamoured and now in love with this guy who is likely a journeyman…… CLEVELAND has shot itself in the foot repeadedly…especially the NEW BROWNS. I’m telling you as someone that does their homework, if they choose DA on the long haul over Quinn; they’re shooting themselves in the head.
ShaneRollins said
Ah, but as the season goes on and after the combine, will their opinion still stand?
Though Phil Savage has said he has no problem having both players or their contracts on his team, we have the room for them.