I’m participating in another Roundball Roundtable over at Rebuilding Year. The topic de jour is Anderson Varejao. Rather than rewrite my thoughts on the trade here I’m just going to include my first installment of what I wrote for the Roundtable. Check in at Rebuilding Year for the whole discussion, which should be posted within a day or two.
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As has been said in a number of publications (The Plain Dealer, ESPN) a lot of GMs and agents were very interested in seeing how the Varejao holdout concluded. The consensus seemed to be that if Ferry buckled and gave him either the 5yr/$60M contract or the 1ry/$5M contract that it would be a potentially crippling blow to future contract negotiations. Agents would start holding out their players at will, which would be terrible for the league and its fans. Ferry standing firm was a win for the NBA.
As for Varejao, if being an unrestricted free agent was his goal then I think he’s been successful. He’ll be getting less money over the two years he’s under contract than he would have had he signed a longer deal with the Cavs, but if he plays well enough during those two years he’ll make more money in year three than he would’ve under a longer deal from the Cavs (~$7M), and the subsequent years of free agency will arrive sooner, which means more money sooner.
He is taking a risk, however. Instead of $32M he’s only guaranteed about half that. For a guy who’s game involves submitting himself to serious physical abuse this has to concern him just a little bit, on top of which is the shorter window in which he has to prove himself. He can’t afford to tank.
Which gets me around to how this works for the Cavs. The Cavs will presumably be getting an extended contract year out of Varejao for the 1.8 years he’s in Cleveland. This should be a considerable benefit to the Cavs. Usually it goes the other way, where players regress after signing a contract (cough, LarryHughesVinceCarter). If Anderson doesn’t play well enough to talk his way into a long term deal that pays him much more than $8/yr then the Cavs can find comfort in knowing that they aren’t paying him for those additional three years of relative sub-average performance.
(quickly: The notion that the Cavs will only have him for two seasons is unfounded. The Cavs will be considerable cap space in two years. If Varejao plays himself into a big contract the Cavs will be one of the teams in the running to sign him. If he signs somewhere else it could look like the Cavs got taken to the cleaners on this contract, but if Varejao bombs and is unable to play himself into a big contract then the Cavs will look savvy for only having to pay him for two (or three) seasons.)
The point being that how this plays out for both parties will rest on how well Varejao plays. There is nothing novel about this, obviously. The fairest contract system would be total free agency for each player every year. Their play would dictate their pay.
The Cavs hoped locking Varejao into a long-term deal would mean underpaying him over the course of the contract. Their nightmare was locking him into a long-term deal where they would be overpaying him, which is what tends to happen when a player hits free agency. The ultimate dream and the ultimate nightmare scenarios were both avoided. Instead the end result was a contract that likely underpays him for the time he’s in Cleveland — but admittedly for a shorter period — and with a significant hedge against ever overpaying him. It’s a compromise in the truest sense of the word.
So what the hell am I saying? Well, my gut reaction is that this is a good deal for the Cavs. It’s probably also a good deal for Varejao. In light of everything that has transpired, on the whole it’s probably the best possible outcome, all things considered. The Cavs desperately need Varejao back. I think he makes them a significantly better team. There is little doubt in my mind that he’ll out-perform his salary, which is good for the Cavs both on the court and in the boardroom (is there a boardroom?).
I’m interested in how this all came about. Anyone else read the Charlotte Observer article where the author implied that the Bobcats GM offered this contract to Varejao as a favor to his agent? I’m surprised this is not getting talked about more.
