If historical data matter…
Posted by disappointmentzone on 29 September 2007
Though CC Sabathia has been in the Majors since 2001 he has only pitched against the Yankees eight times in his career and the last time he faced them was 2004. Sabathia is the expected ALDS Game 1 starter, so let’s take a look at his careers numbers against the LeBrons Yankees.
Games: 8
Record: 1-7
Innings Pitched: 41.2
ER: 33
BB: 30
K: 24
ERA: 7.13
WHIP: 1.75
BAA: .267
I have no idea how much stock to put into any of these numbers and I am inclined to believe that they have absolutely no bearing how how well Sabathia will pitch in the ALDS. One of the most annoying habits in professional sports coverage is the incessant spouting of historical match-up stats. Prior to 1953 no team ever scored more than 7 runs against the Indians in a weekday playoff game. (1) So that means the Indians are a lock to hold the Yankees under 7 runs, right? Because what a team did 54 years ago so obviously is indicative of what a team will do today.
But it’s fun to look at this stuff nonetheless, so why not do it a little more!
Fausto Carmona is the expected ALDS Game 2 starter. He has started two games against the Yankees in his career. Here are his numbers:
Games: 2
Record: 0-1
Innings Pitched: 16.1
ER: 7
BB: 3
K: 9
ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.16
BAA: .271
Though I have only anecdotal evidence to support this claim, I would argue that the Indians are in an advantageous position having their two starters make a total of two starts in the last three seasons against their playoff opponent. Maybe someone with a Baseball Prospectus subscription wants to mine through the boxscores to see how well pitchers do in subsequent starts against a team in the same season, but I would think that the more often a team sees a pitcher the more success they have against him. That might be the only logical reason why the Indians did so well against Johan Santana this season.
fn 1: I have no idea of this stat is true. I made it up.
