The Eastern Conference Finals will come down to how well Larry Hughes plays. Forget about LeBron. The Pistons are going to throw Prince at him with help coming from all angles (much like what the Warriors did to disrupt Dirk). He’s too good of a player to be held down, but his success will come in proportion to the success of his teammates. The more problems the Not-LeBrons have in scoring, the more likely it is that the Cavs will lose.
If you have followed the Cavs this season there is nothing about what I’m suggesting that is novel. What I am writing about this series is the exact thing I would write about pretty much any game the Cavs play. The difference here is that, whereas against lesser teams the Cavs could ride the crest of LBJ’s ability, against the Pistons those holes cannot be hidden by recourse to a singular talent. It takes five to beat the Pistons, which is a lot more than it takes to beat most teams. (1)
The games will all be low scoring, with 97 points as the upper limit of regulation games. 90 will be enough to win most games, but the first team to 80 points is what to watch. There will be fewer possessions in each game than in your typical NBA contest, which means that if Hughes attempts 15+ shots he’s probably attempting too many. Hughes cannot shoot his way into a shot streak if the Cavs have any chance. Every shot Hughes attempts is one fewer shot a better-able teammate could be attempting. The Pistons will want to lure the Cavs into forcing LBJ to take every shot. He can’t do that if the Cavs are going to win. Someone else has to step up and that person (probably) can’t be Hughes. He has demonstrated that he can’t shoot about forty different ways this season. If Hughes is hoisting shots, the Cavs are losing games.
So watch Hughes. He’ll be the key. If he plays well then I like the Cavs’ chances of stealing a game.
Pistons move on, 4-2.
1: I like this sort of shorthand for the quality of teams. Really good teams take 4-5 guys to beat them. Really bad teams can be bowled over by 1 guy. The Cavs are on the cusp of the 4-5 guy level, having proved they can handle a three-headed attack in the Nets. The corollary is that the Cavs are going into battle with only about 2.5 guys on offense. That’s a problem.
