Cavaliers: 39% mark: analysis

The Cavs are 20-12 through the first 32 games of the season. We are inching up on the 40% mark and when the Cavs return home after the long west coast road trip the season to play the Orlando Magic that will be the 41st game of the season, or the 50% mark. With the last home game before that brutal run tonight against the Nets (a team that had to play very hard last night to beat the Bulls; a team that’ll have to travel to play the Cavs; a team I like our chances of beating) I figured this was as good of time as any to provide an update on how the team is doing statistically. At this point I’m not going to go into any detailed discussion of what the team is doing well (defense) or not doing well (offense). That’ll come later. Right now is only about the numbers.

WS/min = Win Score per minute
WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes
WP = Wins Produced
ProjWP = Projected Wins Produced

If you have any interest in learning more about these statistics (or even if you don’t) then buy The Wages of Wins and check out the book’s blog, updated every day by one of its authors. Both are great reads.

This table is organized by points scored and does not include a column for Wins Produced above average, a statistic I’ve been tracking in the Disappointment Zone boxscore. As a rule guards have lower Win Scores than forwards, who have lower Win Scores than centers. A guard with a Win Score of .133 and a center with a Win Score of .225 are both playing average basketball for their respective positions.

Now the Wins Produced (the more robust of the “Wins” statistics):

These statistics have been adjusted for position, so it’s completely fair to say that Anderson Varejao has out-performed Larry Hughes, for example. LeBron James is the most productive player on the team. Drew Gooden is next. If Drew Gooden keeps putting up 31/16s then by the end of the season he may very well take the title from James, although I wouldn’t bet on this happening. Ira Newble is the worst player, but Pavolvic has been the most costly since he’s played more minutes than any of the scrubs.

So those are the numbers through 32 games. How will the team do over the rest of the season? If you project each player’s numbers out to 82 games, this is what you get:

Keep following the Wages of Wins blog to see where 48 wins would put the Cavs in Eastern Conference playoff seeding — they are doing analyses of all the NBA teams. This much is certain: 48 wins would be enough to finish first in the Atlantic Division.

Ryan A.’s reply to an unrelated note

This is burried in the comments section to the previous post, but it’s worth putting up front. The internal politics that lead to Willingham’s dismissal is a topic that deserves a more sutble hand than I’m willing to offer, but looking at the on-the-field results are telling. It’s also worth mentioning that everything Weis has done the past two seasons has been with Willingham’s recruits, much like when Roy Williams won the NCAAs with the players Matt Doherty recruited. Except Williams, you know, actually won something. Anyway. Thanks, Ryan. His words follow.

Let’s look at Ty Willinghan’s first two seasons in 02 and 03 compared to Charlie Weis’ first two years in 05 and 06.

2002 Ty Willingham

W Maryland (11-3, won Peach Bowl)
W Purdue (7-6, won Sun)
W Michigan (10-3, won Outback)
W Michigan State (4-8)
W Stanford (2-9)
W Pittsburgh (9-4, won Insight)
W Air Force (8-5, lost San Fransisco Bowl)
W Florida State (9-5, lost Sugar)
L Boston College (9-4, won Motor City)
W Navy (2-10)
W Rutgers (1-11)
L USC (11-2, won Orange)
L North Carolina St (11-3)

2003 Ty Willingham

W Washington St (10-3, won Holiday)
L Michigan (10-3, lost Rose)
L Michigan St (8-5, lost Alamo)
L Purdue (9-4, lost Capital One)
W Pittsburgh (8-5, lost Continental Tire)
L USC (12-1, won Rose/split national championship)
L Boston College (8-5, won San Fransisco Bowl)
W Navy (8-5, lost Houston Bowl)
W BYU (4-8)
W Stanford (2-9)
L Syracuse (6-6)

2005 Charlie Weis

W Pittsburgh (5-6)
W Michigan (7-5, Lost Alamo)
L Michigan State (5-6)
W Washington (2-9)
W Purdue (5-6)
L USC (12-1, lost Rose)
W BYU (6-6)
W Tennessee (5-6)
W Navy (8-4, won Poinsettia)
W Syracuse (1-10)
W Stanford (2-9)
L Ohio State (10-2)

2006 Charlie Weis

W Georgia Tech (9-5, lost Gator)
W Penn State (9-4, won Outback)
L Michigan (11-2, lost Rose)
W Michigan State (4-8)
W Purdue (8-6, lost Champs Sports)
W Stanford (2-9)
W UCLA (7-6, lost Emerald)
W Navy (9-4, lost Meineke)
W North Carolina (3-9)
W Air Force (4-8)
W Army (3-9)
L USC (11-2, won Rose)
L LSU (11-2)

Look at the comparisons. In Willingham’s first two years the opponent’s record was a combined 179-127 for a .585 winning percentage. For Weis, it is 159-144 for a .525 winning percentage.

Willingham faced 16 bowl teams, 9 of which won their bowl games. Weis faced 10 bowl teams, 3 of which won their bowls.

Willingham beat 9 Bowl teams; Maryland, Purdue, Michigan, Pitt, Air Force, Florida State (BCS), Washington State, Pitt (again), and Navy. Weis has defeated 7 Bowl teams; a 7-5 michigan team, Navy, Georgia Tech, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, and Navy (again).

Also, Willingham defeated five teams that went on to WIN their bowl game, while Weis has only accomplished that feat twice.

It’s not Weis’ fault that Tennesse had their worst year in 20 years the year they played, or that michigan was down the year he beat them, or that MSU, Purdue and Air Force were all down from Willingham’s first two years, but the fact remains that Weis hasn’t defeated anybody of substance. His next big win will be his first. As of right now, his biggest wins are over the 7-5 michigan team and the near upset of USC.