With two weeks left in the season the Browns have an outside chance at getting the fourth draft pick. In an odd twist, the Browns have great control over their draft fate entering the final two weeks since we play the Texans and Bucs our last two games. Here’s where we stand:
The Raiders and Lions are both 2-11. The Browns cannot finish with a worse record than either of these teams. The best we can hope is that we tie them. Will that happen? Well, the Raiders finish the season with games against Kansas City (7-6) and the New York Jets (8-6). The Lions finish up against Chicago (12-2) and at Dallas (9-5). The Raiders will only win if the defense scores, oh, 21 points in both of next games. The Lions will only win if Grossman, um, plays like Grossman and the Bears defense comes down with food poisoning. The Lions have a 2% chance of beating Dallas. The smart money is on the Raiders and Lions finishing with two wins. So we can’t pass them and we won’t tie them.
Next in line is Tampa Bay at 3-11. Tampa Bay came alive in Chicago on Sunday, scoring 31 points, taking the Bears to overtime, and nearly winning a most-surprising game. They come to Cleveland next weekend. This is where things get interesting. Let’s play out one scenario.
Let’s say the Browns lose to Tampa Bay. That would mean both Tampa Bay and Cleveland would be 4-11. Two other teams will enter next week with records of 4-10: the Cardinals and Texans. The Texans play the Colts. Sure, the Colts have no defense, but the Texans have no offense and I wouldn’t bet against Peyton Manning. So the Texans lose. The Cardinals play the 49ers. A few weeks ago this looked like a game the Cardinals could win. Since then the 49ers have started to play much better and I’d take Gore and a running game over Leinart and a passing game. The Cardinals could still win, although probably not, since the game is in San Francisco. So the Cardinals lose next week as well.
That means next Tuesday we could be in a tie with the Bucs, Texans, and Cardinals at 4-11.
Tampa Bay finishes the season against Seattle. That’s probably a loss, but Seattle has looked suspect the past few weeks and the game will be at home, so who knows. Maybe the Bucs can pull the upset, but let’s assume they lose.
The Cardinals finish against the Chargers. That’s a loss unless San Diego benches their starters (which will depend on how the Colts and Ravens play). Again, let’s assume they lose
So Tampa Bay and Arizona finish 4-12, tied behind Detroit and Oakland.
What of the Texans? The Texans play the Browns. So under this scenario “what of the Texans?” is the same as “what of the Browns?” I’m not going to say the Browns should throw the game, but finishing at 4-12 rather than 5-11 could mean the difference between the fourth draft pick and the seventh pick. I have Arizona with the tie braker for the third pick, and then the Browns with tie brakers over Tampa Bay and Houston.
Losing the next two games would mean a draft order of (this is an educated guess):
Detroit
Oakland
Arizona
Cleveland
Tampa Bay
Houston
Washington
If the Browns beat the Texans they would finish at 5-11. I have the Redskins finishing at 5-11. The Redskins would hold the tie braker, so the Browns would draft seventh. Here’s my guess at what the order would be:
Detroit
Oakland
Arizona
Houston
Tampa Bay
Washington
Cleveland
If the Browns win both of the games it is feasible that they will end up with the ninth draft pick. So winning means a potentially significant drop in the draft. It’s hard to justify winning the next two games if it means dropping five spots in the draft.
So that’s one, somewhat likely, scenario.
The guy I want the team to draft is Joe Thomas, the tackle out of Wisconsin. I don’t see either the Lions or the Raiders drafting a lineman, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals drafting someone other than Thomas. If Gaines Adams (DE, Clemson) comes out early, Arizona might be tempted to take him given how much the Cardinals have spent on the offense the past few seasons. I’m not going to speculate right now on who the Browns would draft if Thomas were off the board, but if Calvin Johnson comes out and is available when the Browns are on the clock, or if the Browns still have the fourth pick, or both, trading down might be a posibility and would probably be the wise move. None of this will happen if the Browns finish 5-11 (let alone 6-10). No fourth draft pick. No Calvin Johnson. Much less leverage in trading down. With this in mind, it’s hard to justify winning either of the next two games, at least under this scenario. If Houston and Arizona pull of bigs wins next weekend then winning another game won’t hurt as much as it would if Houston and Arizona both lose (which is likely).
