Game 11: W

In each of the first nine games of the season LeBron James was an above-average player, usually by a considerable margin. The next most consistent performer was Drew Gooden, who was an above-average player in five of the first nine games. After that there is nothing approaching consistency among any of the remaining players, except for David Wesley, who has been the most consistently bad player. He’s had only two above-average games. In the first of those games he played four minutes. In the second game he played one minute. So don’t read “above-average” as equivalent to “positive impact” or something. The Cavs won both games during which he was above-average; one of those games the final margin was 19 points. He was above-average in scrub time, mostly, which isn’t particularly difficult. And in neither of the cases was Wesley particularly above-average.

So the formula for the first nine games was [LeBron James plays better than everyone else] + [whoever else steps up, probably Gooden, maybe Ilgauskas] – [rest of the starting lineup] + [one or two bench players] – [rest of bench] = seven wins, two loses.

Since the Washington game, however, things have changed. LeBron James has been below-average in the last two games, and not surprisingly the Cavs lost one of those games (against Washington) and barely held on to win the other (against Memphis). When LeBron James plays worse than an average small forward the Cavs struggle to win, which isn’t much of a surprise. Of course, in the other two loses LBJ was above-average, but in those games practically everyone other than LBJ, Gooden, and Z were below-average, and most of those players were well below-aveage. It’s fairly telling — if we can read into the three loses with any depth — that the Cavs have the most problems when the back court plays poorly. Eric Snow is providing the Cavs with very little. Prior to getting injured Larry Hughes was playing alright, but not really. After the first game of the season Hughes went on a nice run of seven games in which be was a below-average player. And then he hurt himself (suprise!). In fact, Hughes has been the most consistently bad player on the roster. So the Cavs get practically nothing from the starting back court (at least the back court isn’t highly paid. Wait a minute…). But that’s the norm on this team. It’s to be expected. The one constant in the three losses, however, is terrible production from the guards coming off the bench.

From game to game there is little consistency in the roster among particular players (other than LBJ). But the formula I laid out a few paragraphs ago is approximately what happens in each game. So far the individual inconsistency has been muted by the overall consistency of the team: LBJ and a couple other front court players (usually Gooden, often Marshall, sometimes Z or Verejao) play great games and one or two of the back court players plays a good game. From game to game it’s hard to say who will be the good or great players, but in each game the Cavs have a number of them, mostly from the forwards and centers but almost always from at least one or two guards.

A lot of credit has to be given to Mike Brown. He’s done an admirable job delegating the minutes to the players who are playing the best in any game. The Cavs go about ten deep, and they go ten deep out of necessity. Outside of LeBron the Cavs have no other superstar. Winning consitently without two great players is very hard to do in the NBA. Just cast glance at, say, the last 20 NBA champions. As David Berri has noted about the Washington Wizards, it’s difficult to imagine them being able to improve much with their current roster. The Wizards have one great player (Arenas) and a smattering of decent players, none of which have shown any signs of being able to transform into great players.

This is precisely what the Cavs are doing, however. Granted, we are only 11 games into the season, so the long-term effects of not having a reliable #2 option might not yet be apparent. But so far this season when the Cavs have had at least two players who have played well above average in a game (WS/min at least .100 above average), that player (like, the guy who’s not LBJ) has played at least 20 minutes, and more often than not plays more than 26 minutes. Only once has there been a player who’s played well above average not during scrub duty who’s played less than 20 minutes, and that time the player played 17 minutes (Snow, 11/18). Again, the likelihood of that #2 player being a starter is about equal to the likelihood of that #2 player being a sub. Regardless, however, Brown is finding ways to make sure that player plays a lot of minutes. This is fairly incredible. Trust me.

You can see the same thing going on out West, with the Utah Jazz. Just look at a handful of Jazz boxscores and you’ll notice that Jerry Sloan is doing exactly the sort of careful juggling act as Brown: playing a lot of players but making sure that the most productive players are getting a lot of minutes even if who those productive players are changes from game to game. Both the Cavs and the Jazz are getting an astonishing amount of production from the bench. That has as much to do with the coaching as anything. Jerry Sloan is an elite NBA head coach. Mike Brown certainly hasn’t earned that status. But so far this season Brown has been as good as anyone.

The Disappointment Zone Boxscore from last night’s game: