The BCS standings were released this evening. The Ohio State Football Buckeyes are still #1 and the University of Michigan is still #2. Then: USC, FLA, and ND. Notre Dame has no right to be ranked #5, and normally it wouldn’t matter except that USC and ND play in a couple of weeks and the winner of that game will benefit from the huge bump that accompanies a victory over the third or fifth ranked team in the nation (assuming neither team loses next week, that is). Florida is essentially locked out of the BCS championship game at this point. Even if Florida wins the SEC championship the best team they can hope to beat in that game (Arkansas) is ranked lower (#7) than both USC and ND. The only chance Florida has, in my opinion, is if ND barely beats USC and then Florida blows out the SEC West champion. But even then I don’t think Florida should make it because….
Ohio State and Michigan are by far the two best teams in the country.
What’s more, this weekend brought this fact into stark relief for anyone in the country who was still unsure. The only reason Florida is still in the hunt for the BCS title game is because they have tall player on their team who can jump very high and block kicks, and they needed him to do this twice yesterday to beat a fairly pedestrian South Carolina team at home. Struggling at home to beat South Carolina on national television doesn’t bode well for Florida when both OSU and Michigan killed their respective opponents. The fact is that Ohio State and Michigan are about 7-10 points better than every other team in the nation and it’s just an unfortunate circumstance that they have to play each other in the last game of the season. One team will lose and late season loses always damage teams more than early season losses. As I have argued before, unless the OSU-Michigan game ends in a blowout (25+ point victory) the AP voters would be hard pressed to make a convincing argument for moving either USC, FLA, or ND ahead of the loser of the OSU-Michigan game, let alone another team.
And the OSU-Michigan game certainly won’t be a blowout. You have to go back to 1993 to find the last game between OSU and Michigan that was decided by more than 16 points. Six times in that span the game has been decided by seven or fewer points and once by eight points. It’s a rivalry game — arguably the biggest in all of college sports — and one of the least relevant facts is the national ranking of either team. As if it matters if OSU is #1 or Michigan is #2. The outcome of the game will be close, as it always is, and would be close even if Michigan were ranked #35. Ohio State has opened as a 7-point favorite. This number will probably come down in the next few days and my guess is that it’ll close around 4 points (just a hunch). The game will be close. There will be no blowout.
Depending on time I plan on doing a fairly involved statistical breakdown of the OSU-Michigan game that may come in pieces or as one long chunk later in the week. In the meantime, my fingers will be crossed that sufficient coverage is given to the fact that OSU and Michigan are the two best teams in the country no matter what happens on Saturday.
Why?
Because the only thing better than beating Michigan once in a season is beating them twice. And the only thing better than that is beating them for the National Championship. The possibility is there and the scenario under which this possibility could play out is utterly logical and apparent. Which is why I doubt it’ll happen.
