Though I am confident that OSU will dispose of Northern Illinois, I do not think the game will unfold as OSU fans would expect given the relative strength of previous seasons’ opening game opponents. In the last four opening games, OSU has allowed only 50 points, with nearly half (21) of those points coming against Texas Tech four years ago. In those four games OSU has scored 134 points, for an average margin of victory of nearly two touchdowns. Tomorrow’s game will be closer than two touchdowns. The spread right now is 17 points. If you have a few pennies that you’re interested in wagering tomorrow, Northern Illinois +17 looks pretty good to me. Why? Here are four reasons.
1) Northern Illinois is no joke on offense. Last season Phil Horvath, the NIU starting quarterback, passed for nearly 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns while leading the NCAA in completion percentage (70.6%). Then he broke is arm and missed the final three games of the regular season. Dan Nicholson started in relief and guided NIU to three straight victories. Nicholson finished the year with 831 yards passing, six touchdowns, a 62% completion percentage, and a quarterback rating of 152.2. Not bad. But the passing game isn’t the Huskies’ strength. Northern Illinois has one of the best running backs in the country in Garrett Wolfe, who not only leads the team in appropriate last names but also led the team in rushing yards last season, with 1580. He scored 16 touchdowns and averaged 6.5 yards per carry. Against Northwestern he rushed for 245 yards and three TDs and against Michigan he rushed for 148 yards and nearly averaged nine yards per carry. Though Wolfe is small (5”7’, 177 lbs.), he’s shifty and extremely quick, which is exactly the type of running back that can challenge a young, inexperienced defense. NIU isn’t going to just line up in simple formations and run the ball into the OSU front seven—that would be a relatively simple assignment for the defense and, as such, shouldn’t be expected. Instead I exepect NIU to come out in multi-receiver sets and make extensive use of Wolfe in the passing game (last season he had 222 yards receiving). In fact, I have a mini-prediction: Wolfe will have one reception for at least 20 yards and it’ll come on a screen pass and a dump-off on a quick drop. Expect to see NIU use screen passes early since these are the sorts of plays that take advantage of young, inexperienced, and anxious defenses who are prone to being overly aggressive. The extent to which Wolfe is successful in the passing game will depend on the linebackers. If not working as a unit and staying home in pass coverage I wouldn’t be surprised if NIU passes for over 250 yards. Speaking of which…
2) The OSU defense, which lost nine starters from last year and will start five freshmen this year. OSU was excellent against the running game last year and that should be the strength again this year, as the only two returning starters, David Patterson and Quinn Pitcock, play on the offensive line and both play in the middle (DT). James Laurinaitis, Marcus Freeman, and John Kerr make a potentially talented trio at linebacker, with Kerr as the most experienced of the group (though Laurinaitis started in against Notre Dame and played most of the Michigan game). But against the balanced attack of NUI it should quickly become clear just how effective and versatile these guys will be. Kerr will bear the bulk of the responsibility being the oldest and playing in the middle. If he falters the defense will have major problems. He’s been out of football for over a year now, since he transferred from Indiana; how rusty will he be? The secondary…well…If there is an area in which to focus one’s anxiety it’s certainly the secondary. Passing schemes in college football have become so complex over the last decade that simply plugging in new pieces—as OSU is doing across the board—is exceedingly tough. With the exception of middle linebacker, the hardest position in which to slot a freshman is safety, which is exactly what Tressel is doing with Jamario O’Neal. Fortunately O’Neal is playing the less-demanding of the safety positions (strong safety). Nonetheless, cornerback Antonio Smith is also a freshman. Expect to see him get picked on and for NIU to run a lot of crossing routes and play action to try to tie up O’Neal.
3) The Texas factor. How hard will it be for the team to not look ahead to Texas? The Texas game has been hyped since last year. The NIU game has never been hyped and I wouldn’t be surprised if before last week no one on the OSU football team could name five starters on the NIU team. NIU is just good enough that if OSU isn’t careful the game could be a whole lot closer going into the fourth quarter than they’d like. And if it’s close going into the fourth quarter…
4) NIU has a strong tradition of quality special teams play under coach Joe Novak, who’s kind of like the MAC’s answer to Jim Tressel in that regard. PK Chris Nendick has made 99% of his PATs (101/102) and is an All-Conference kicker. He has a strong leg—career long field goal is 52 yards—and he’s accurate as well. I would take him over whoever Tressel would send out for a 50-yard field goal at the end of regulation against a team OSU should beat (remember Marshall?).
Of course, I still think OSU is going to win.
Final score: OSU 37, Northern Illinois 28.
